Melbourne Cup: Horse-by-horse guide to the ‘race that stops the nation’ at Flemington

Sky Sports Racing’s Australian expert Tim Carroll assesses every runner in the Melbourne Cup – watch Flemington’s Group 1 feature live on Sky Sports Racing at 4am on Tuesday, with coverage commencing at 11pm on Monday.

1. GOLD TRIP

Jockey: James McDonald | Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

The Ciaron Maher and David Eustace-trained seven-year-old will be trying to become the first horse since the great Makybe Diva in 2005 to go back-to-back in the race. He is following the same path as last year, winning the Turnbull Stakes with a barnstorming last-to-first finish, followed by an excellent third in the Caulfield Cup and an equally impressive performance in the Cox Plate, when tapped for toe and beaten just over a length. Only Maybe Diva has been able to carry the same weight to victory since 1975 and regular rider Mark Zahra has opted to ride Without A Fight instead, but he does gain the services of James McDonald and clearly thrives on the large layout of Flemington.

2. ALENQUER

Damien Oliver | Michael Moroney

Former William Haggas inmate who had the likes of State Of Rest and Lord North in behind when winning the Tattersalls Cup in Ireland last year, but he has shown very little in five Australian starts. He is a complete unknown over this trip and while it would be a feelgood fairytale to see one of the all-time great Australian jockeys in Damien Oliver ride the winner in his last Melbourne Cup, it looks unlikely.

3. WITHOUT A FIGHT

Mark Zahra | Anthony and Sam Freedman

Although well beaten in this last year when with Simon and Ed Crisford in what was his only try at this trip, he is a two-time winner at York over 1m 6f which, like Flemington, is a flat, left-handed track. He looked brilliant when winning twice during the Winter Carnival in Brisbane before making a flat-footed return over 1m 1f in the Underwood, but he was then sensational when exploding down the centre of the track to win a stacked Caulfield Cup. No horse has done the Cup double in the same year since Ethereal in 2001, but the Caulfield Cup is still considered the best trial for this race and Mark Zahra jumps off last year’s winner to keep the partnership intact.

4. BREAKUP

Kohei Matsuyama | Tatsuya Yoshioka

Japan last won this race in 2007 with Delta Blues, but this fellow looks a live chance after a solid effort in the Caulfield Cup. He met trouble over the concluding stages that day but was not going anywhere at the time. However, that was his first run since June, and the Melbourne Cup has always been the plan. Given his second-up record reads three wins from six goes, he should come on plenty for the run, and the last time he went over this trip he was not beaten far when fourth in the spring edition of the Tenno Sho, which is a seriously good 2m race.

5. VAUBAN

Ryan Moore | Willie Mullins

The Willie Mullins-trained five-year-old will go into the race having not been seen since August, when winning the Ballyroan at Naas in good style. However, it was his romp in the Copper Horse at Royal Ascot when he had stable companion, and subsequent Ebor winner, Absurde over seven lengths in arrears that set tongues wagging. He looks well-weighted compared to a few other Europeans who have come down for this race, and the reports from Melbourne have been positive. He usually likes to go forward, so the draw in stall three is ideal, and with Ryan Moore flying in for the ride, there are plenty of reasons to think he can become the first winning favourite since Fiorente in 2013.

6. SOULCOMBE

Joao Moreira | Chris Waller

The son of Frankel was an easy winner of the Melrose Handicap for William Haggas last year before being sold and sent to Chris Waller. He has plenty of talent and possesses a serious turn of foot, but he has been his own worst enemy recently when falling out of the stalls on his last two starts, including last time when he blew the start by six lengths in the Caulfield Cup, which saw him badly out of position before being beaten a little over three lengths. Waller has taken the blinkers off in an effort to ensure he breaks cleanly, and ‘Magic Man’ Joao Moreira is booked, but he needs to jump well to ensure he does not end up buried from a low draw.

7. ABSURDE

Zac Purton | Willie Mullins

Looks to be the Willie Mullins second pick, but he did win the Ebor at York from the very outside draw when last seen, which traditionally has been a solid form line for this, and it is worth noting that was the first time he had run on firm ground. He was over seven lengths behind Vauban at Royal Ascot, who he meets on 4lb better terms here, but this is a trip he will relish, and he does have what looks to be a favourable draw.

8. RIGHT YOU ARE

John Allen | Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

A genuine type who is handy on his day, with 10 wins next to his name, and ran a nice race to finish fifth, not beaten far, when last seen in the Caulfield Cup. However, he is a seven-year-old having his first start beyond a mile and a half in 27 attempts, and although he is in very good hands, he has to be a big risk at this trip.

9. VOW AND DECLARE

Billy Egan | Danny O’Brien

Lines up for his fourth Melbourne Cup having won the race in 2019, and although he does not do a lot of winning, he has looked rejuvenated recently, running with plenty of merit to finish runner-up on his last two starts. He ran well enough in this race last year when less than nine lengths behind the winner in a well-strung-out finish, and he has less weight to carry this time around. Only three eight-year-olds have won this race, although Twilight Payment did achieve the feat three years ago, and his one win from his last 25 starts is hardly inspiring, but he is honest and, on his current form, is worth considering for any exotics.

10. CLEVELAND

Michael Dee | Kris Lees

This horse has been scratched on vets’ advice.

11. ASHRUN

Kerrin McEvoy | Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

What an incredible story it would be if the Ciaran Maher and David Eustace-trained eight-year-old could just hit the frame, let alone win the race. He was once a promising stayer in France before running better than midfield in the 2020 Melbourne Cup for Andreas Wahler, but then did not see the racetrack for nearly three years. He has now had three runs back and snuck into the race when placing in the Geelong Cup last month, and while this will demand much more, as well as requiring a modern-day training miracle, he carries no weight, with three-time Melbourne Cup-winning rider Kerrin McEvoy picking up the ride.

12. DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR

Daniel Stackhouse | Phillip Stokes

A former Kiwi that hasn’t been placed in his last nine starts, which is hardly appealing, but he ran sixth in this last year when coming from well back and now steps up to a trip he enjoys. He’s only had three goes over 2m; winning the Adelaide Cup, finishing placed in a Sydney Cup, and the aforementioned run in this race last year. He looks a tad short on class, but he has no weight on his back and given this is likely to be run at a good, honest gallop, he’s by no means the worst outsider in the field.

13. OKITA SOUSHI

Dylan Gibbons | Joseph P O’Brien

Joseph O’Brien has won this race twice in a short period of time and this fellow has won over the trip at Dundalk, which means he deserves at least some respect. He had to be snagged back from a high draw in the Caulfield Cup, a scenario that looks likely again here, but he should at least get a solid gallop to aim at, which will help. However, he was beaten 10 lengths in the Caulfield Cup, with several of these well clear, and it is difficult to see why he will turn the form around, even over this longer trip.

14. SHRAZ

Beau Mertens | Chris Waller

A son of Sea The Stars who was a Stakes winner in his native France but has failed to fire since joining Chris Waller, going winless in 12 starts. His recent form simply is not good enough for this, and his three best efforts since arriving in Australia, including when runner-up in a Sydney Cup, have come on testing ground. There is a bit of rain forecast around race day but Flemington drains well, and he would need bottomless ground to enter calculations.

15. LASTOTCHKA

Craig Williams | Mick Price and Michael Kent Jr

Having her first start in Australia for Mick Price and Michael Kent, this five-year-old French mare is certainly one of the more intriguing runners in the race. She does not have a lot of size about her, which is a negative as this tends to be a race with plenty of hustle and bustle, but she does stay and was a winner over a similar trip when last seen at ParisLongchamp in September. She has won her last two runs when returning from similar breaks; however, all her wins have come on rain-effected ground.

16. MAGICAL LAGOON

Mark Du Plessis | Chris Waller

Won the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot and then the Irish Oaks at the Curragh last year, but she has shown nothing in five starts since joining Chris Waller. Unless a step up to 2m for the first time brings about plenty of improvement, which looks highly unlikely given she has been going forward but puncturing over shorter trips, it is impossible to see why she will be involved.

17. MILITARY MISSION

Rachel King | Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott

He looks a bit below the top horses here, but he has no weight on his back and arrives in good shape with wins in both the Newcastle Cup and Herbet Power from his last three starts. Both those races are over a mile and a half and he has never been beyond that trip, but there is plenty of stamina in his pedigree and he gives the impression he will stay, arriving ready and fit after five spins leading in.

18. SERPENTINE

Jye McNeil | Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott

Epsom Derby winner who has only managed to win one of his 12 starts since arriving in Australia, and that was a handicap in Brisbane. To be fair, he has not been too bad recently, finishing in the top four in all three starts this campaign. I don’t think 2m sees him at his best, though, and he was beating panels in this last year, but he does carry less weight this time around and is perfectly drawn in stall one, given they are likely to want to ride him forward.

19. VIRTUOUS CIRCLE

Craig Newitt | Liam Howley

Impossible to have on recent form and has not really done anything since finishing runner-up in the ATC Derby in April, although that was on a heavy track where plenty failed to fire. He is having his first go beyond the extended mile and a half and did give the impression he would stay when luckless in the Bart Cummings here last month, but he has plenty to find with most of these.

20. MORE FELONS

Jamie Kah | Chris Waller

Formerly with Milton Harris (when known as Scriptwriter), he was well held by Vauban at Royal Ascot and finished unplaced behind Absurde, though not beaten far, in the Ebor. On European form, he looks up against it, but he was an eye-catching fifth in the Geelong Cup on his Australian debut when carving out the fastest closing sectionals of the race. He does have a tricky draw to overcome too (stall 24), but he goes from towards the foot of the handicap and now meets both Vauban and Absurde on far better terms, so he would not be the worst each-way play.

21. FUTURE HISTORY

Hollie Doyle | Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

French import who has gone from a benchmark 78 handicap in June to a Melbourne Cup, and the five-year-old will be a first ride in the race for Hollie Doyle. He won the Bart Cummings here in October before a strong effort to finish placed in the Moonee Valley Cup last time out, when ridden upside down from the high draw. This will be his first try at the trip, but he looks like he will enjoy going over further and, although this represents his acid test, could run a cheeky race with no weight on his back.

22. INTERPRETATION

Teodore Nugent | Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Former Aidan O’Brien inmate who won three on the bounce in Ireland before running fourth in the 2021 St Leger. Failed to finish in this last year and others look better. However, he did win the Bendigo Cup on his most recent start and, while that form is questionable, the winner of last year’s Bendigo Cup, High Emocean, went on to finish third in this last year for the same trainer.

23. KALAPOUR

Zac Lloyd | Kris Lees

Having his first go at the trip, but he is a bit of a one-pace type who should enjoy going over 2m. He made it into the Cup by winning the Archer Stakes at the weekend and carries 13lb less here. However, Saturday’s race turned into a sit and sprint, in which he got away with a soft lead, and he will not get that luxury at this level.

24. TRUE MARVEL

Ben Thompson | Matthew A Smith

A veteran stayer who does enjoy the trip, but he looks outclassed in this field. Failed to fire recently, with his only win in nearly two years being a maiden hurdle at Hamilton in May, and that is simply not good enough to land a blow here.

TIM’S VERDICT:

The Caulfield Cup is the race that provides the best local form, and if we mostly concentrate on runners from that race before including the international contenders, we should be able to find some winning bets. The confidence behind Vauban reminds me of two years ago when Incentivise was being touted as untouchable before finishing a gallant second to the brilliant mare Verry Elleegant. Willie Mullins’ five-year-old looks a beast, and the race maps strongly from a low draw, but I would have liked to have seen a lead-up before going in at the current prices, thus I have looked elsewhere for some value.

Soulcombe would be a play if we knew he would leave the stalls cleanly, but there is a big risk he ends up buried if he does not break on the bell. Gold Trip has been in career-best form this season and he will get a strong gallop to aim at, so there is plenty to like, but in what looks a strong renewal, it will not be easy to take this out from the top of the handicap. Absurde was well held by Vauban at Royal Ascot, but he will enjoy going over 2m and it looks like he is going to get his ideal conditions.

WITHOUT A FIGHT finished strongly to win the Caulfield Cup and there is no reason, other than historical pointers, to think he will not go close to completing the double. The runner-up that day does not line up, meaning the selection was well clear of several of these in what is easily the best local form lead-up, with the choice of Mark Zahra having run through the line with plenty of purpose.

TIM’S 1-2-3-4:

1. WITHOUT A FIGHT
2. VAUBAN
3. ABSURDE
4. GOLD TRIP

Best outsiders:

More Felons / Daqiansweet Junior

Watch the Lexus Melbourne Cup from Flemington live on Sky Sports Racing at 4am on Tuesday with coverage commencing at 11pm on Monday.